At the beginning of the six-year term, the then Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Alfonso Durazo, pledged to reduce intentional homicide rates by 50 per cent in the first three years of his administration. For his part, President López Obrador assured that his security strategy would focus on combating the structural causes of violence through the implementation of universal social programmes that would discourage young people from participating in criminal activities. Consequently, he announced the end of direct combat against organised crime and the so-called "war on drugs".
However, reality has outstripped rhetoric. Intentional homicide rates have remained virtually constant in the first half of the six-year term, at around 27 victims per 100,000 inhabitants, which is equivalent to approximately 100 homicides per day. And violent clashes between organised crime groups have increased, as they fight for control of the illicit markets operating in the country, especially the drug trafficking routes to the United States.
Between January 2019 and July 2021, Integralia counted 378 massacres, in which nearly 2,000 civilians have died; most have been concentrated in the central states of the country, including Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán and Zacatecas. This state has entered a spiral of violence: so far in 2021, it has registered a rate of 61.45 victims per 100,000 inhabitants, the highest in the country.
In addition, the interference of organised crime in elections and governmental structures, especially at the municipal level, has increased. In the 2020-2021 electoral process, Integralia counted 239 incidents of political violence, which resulted in 179 fatalities, of which 36 were candidates for elected office.
It also reported the alleged use of intimidatory tactics to condition the vote for candidates linked to criminal organisations in several states of the Republic, notably Michoacán, Sinaloa and San Luis Potosí. Consequently, the political interference of organised crime is one of the most pressing risks to Mexican democracy, and the institutional mechanisms in place seem insufficient to deal with it.
